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水力发电学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 44-60.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20250505

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考虑风光联合出力不确定性的混蓄-风光短期调度模型

  

  • 出版日期:2025-05-25 发布日期:2025-05-25

Short-term dispatch model for hybrid pumped storage-wind-solar power considering uncertainty of combined wind and solar outputs

  • Online:2025-05-25 Published:2025-05-25

摘要: 通过扩建抽蓄机组形成梯级混合式抽蓄是提升传统水电调节能力、促进新能源消纳的有效手段。本文考虑了风光出力的相关性和不确定性,利用Copula函数构建风光联合出力场景,提出了考虑风光联合出力不确定性的梯级混合式抽蓄-风光短期调度模型。该模型以互补系统期望收益最大为目标,通过引入弃电惩罚成本以提升大规模风光并网的消纳水平,除了常规水电约束外,针对梯级混合式抽蓄更为复杂的水力-电力耦合关系,以机组为调度单元,分别建模了抽蓄机组波动调节次数约束、混合式抽蓄电站与机组互斥运行状态约束、抽蓄机组抽-发工况切换等约束。模型求解方面,通过新增0-1变量与辅助变量等方法构建混合整数线性规划模型,并用Java语言编写调用Cplex求解器进行求解。以乌江流域梯级水电站以及风电、光伏为参考构建的算例表明,所提模型充分利用了梯级混合式抽水蓄能电站的灵活调节能力,增加输电通道利用率的同时减少了弃电,进一步提升了风电、光伏的消纳水平。

关键词: 梯级混合式抽水蓄能, 风光联合出力不确定性, 多能互补, 联合体效益期望最大

Abstract: The formation of cascaded hybrid pumped storage through expanding pumped storage units is an effective means to enhance the regulating capacity of traditional hydropower and promote new energy consumption. To consider the correlation and uncertainty of wind and solar power outputs, this paper develops a short-term optimal dispatch model for the operation of a cascaded hybrid pumped storage-wind-solar complementary system, with the Copula function used to construct scenarios for the two outputs combined. Aimed at maximizing the expected return of this system, this model raises the level of large-scale wind and solar grid-connected consumption through introducing a penalty cost for power abandonment. In addition to the conventional hydropower constraints, it accounts for the more complicated hydropower-electricity coupling relationship of the hybrid storage. With the unit as a scheduled object, various new constraints are modeled including the number of fluctuation-regulating runs for a pumped storage unit, the operating states of the hybrid storage station and unit mutual exclusion, and switching between a unit’s pumping and generating conditions. To solve the dispatch model, we construct a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming model by adding new 0-1 variables and auxiliary variables, and use the Java-language Cplex solver. Application in a case study of the Wujiang River cascaded hydropower stations and related wind and solar energy demonstrates that our new dispatch model fully utilizes the flexible regulation capability of the hybrid storage stations, and it succeeds in increasing the utilization rate of the transmission channel, reducing power abandonment, and further enhancing the level of wind and solar energy consumption.

Key words: cascaded hybrid pumped storage power stations, uncertainty of combined wind and solar outputs, multi-energy complementarity, maximum expectation of consortium benefits

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