关键词: 水资源利用, 气象水文预报, 水库调度, 动态控制, 可降水量, 深度强化学习

Abstract: As key water resource projects, reservoirs and their efficient operation are crucial to the society. However, most reservoirs, domestic or international, have been formulating the operating rules based on historical statistical data, and the static rules for planning and design limit their capability of proactive responding to floods and droughts. Recent advancements in meteorological and hydrological forecasting have made forecast informed reservoir operation (FIRO) a research hotspot. This paper discusses the main factors that impact the accuracy of numerical weather forecasts, commonly used hydrological models, and rapidly developing artificial intelligence forecasting techniques. The review also covers the FIRO methods and their applications. Finally, we suggest the comprehensive use of various meteorological and hydrological forecasting products to achieve efficient water resource utilization－including global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based precipitable water vapor, the development of FIRO methods focusing on the vapor-precipitation-runoff three lines of defense, and the construction of deep reinforcement learning operation models that account for the multi-blocking effects of cascade reservoirs.

Key words: water resource utilization, meteorological and hydrological forecast, reservoir operation, dynamic control, precipitable water vapor, deep reinforcement learning