关键词: 优化调度, 水情预报, 供水网络, 水库群, 优化决策

Abstract: Focusing on the application of forecast-based scheduling in optimal decision-making for complex urban water supply network systems, this study formulates a conceptual framework for integrating hydrological and rainfall forecast information. And we develop an optimal decision-making model for complex urban water supply networks, targeting at dual objectives－to maximize reservoir group safety and economic efficiency, and considering holistically the practical constraints, such as reservoir structural integrity, downstream flood control requirements, water treatment plant intake capacity, maximum allowable pipeline flow rates, and urban water supply reliability. This model has achieved a success in application to Ningbo's municipal water supply network system, validating its operational effectiveness. This case study demonstrates it can effectively adjust scheduling strategies and coordinate reservoir operations based on the hydrological conditions forecasted prior to flood events. It generates scheduling schemes that maintain a high operational safety level (100% water supply guarantee rate) while achieving an water resource utilization rate of 41.3% in flood periods, meeting the design requirements completely. This study helps design and optimize the complex urban water supply network systems.

Key words: optimal scheduling, water regime forecasting, water supply network, reservoir group, optimal decision-making