Abstract: On the basis of monthly precipitation and runoff observations in the upper reaches of the Luan River basin over the period of 1961-2011, rainfall-runoff regression relationships have been studied by dividing this study period into three smaller periods (1961-1983, 1984-1999 and 2000-2011). For each period, two rainfall-runoff multivariate regression models have been developed for high and low flow periods, respectively, using a rainfall-runoff double mass plot method and the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. All of the regression models for the three periods have passed the significance tests, with the average runoff residuals being less than 15% and determination coefficients greater than 68%. Based on these regression models, we have quantitatively analyzed the impact of changes in both precipitation and underlying surface on the runoff in the control catchment of the Sandaohezi hydrological station. The results reveal that under the condition of underlying surface over 1961-1983, the precipitation during 1984-1999 and 2000-2011 can generate 8.08% more and 25.34% less runoff than 1961-1983 respectively; under the rainfall condition of 1961-1983, the change in underlying surface over 1984-1999 and 2000-2011 can generate 19.4% and 43.16% less runoff than 1961-1983 respectively. This would affect the inflow discharge of the Panjiakou reservoir to some extent.