Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

水力发电学报

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2024 Vol. 43, No. 3 Published: 2024-03-25

	1	Influence of climate change on Qinghai Lake stage and its mechanism analysis ^Hot!
		LUO Zhuoran, LIU Jiahong, ZHANG Shanghong, ZHOU Jinjun, ZHANG Li, SHAO Weiwei
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240301
		To systematically analyze the variations in the Qinghai Lake stage under climate change and the related influence mechanism, this paper presents a quantitative analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in the hydrological and meteorological factors of the lake basin, using a combination of time series analysis, a geostatistical interpolation method, and correlation analysis based on the data collected at the observation stations over the basin during 1956-2020. We use the global climate model to estimate the varying trends of precipitation and lake stage under different scenarios. The results show that during the past 50 years, the stage and surface area of the lake presented a general trend of decreasing first and then increasing, while an increasing trend occurred in runoff, precipitation and temperature, and a decreasing trend in evaporation. The lake stage was affected significantly by runoff, precipitation, temperature and evaporation; the correlation coefficients were as high as 0.95, 0.92, 0.88 and 0.81, respectively. We project that from 2021 to 2040, the lake stage will take a rising trend, showing an annual average rising rates of 0.218, 0.187, 0.125 and 0.132 m/a under four different scenarios. Quantitative analysis of the lake behaviors under climate change in this study lays a basis for future studies on the water cycling mechanism of plateau lakes.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 1-13 [Abstract] ( 44 ) PDF (6793 KB) ( 99 )

	14	Effects of bed sand gradation adjustment on flood routing in lower Yellow River mainstream
		ZHANG Xiaolei, XU Zhiheng, YANG Chen, BI Zhengzheng
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240302
		Since the operation of Xiaolangdi Reservoir, significant changes have occurred in the conditions of water and sediment entering the lower Yellow mainstream. Due to the impact of clear water discharge from the reservoir, noticeable bed sediment coarsening has occurred downstream of the reservoir. To investigate the impact of bed sediment gradation adjustment on flood routing in this mainstream section, this study first develops a one-dimensional water-sediment coupling mathematical model suitable for the section. And the model is validated using the observed floods occurring from Apr. to Oct. 2020 in the reach of Huayuankou to Sunkou. Then, we design four sets of bed sediment gradations as the initial bed sediment conditions for numerical simulations, based on bed sediment coarsening characteristics over this reach, and taking bed sediment coarsening at Huayuankou as a representative process. Finally, the validated model is used for simulations and the impact of bed sediment gradation adjustment on flood routing is examined. The simulations show the adjustment has an influence on the discharge, water level, sediment concentration, flood routing time, and scour and deposition in the lower Yellow mainstream. Generally, the influence on the river discharge is relatively small, while more sensitive are the responses of water level, sediment concentration, flood routing time, and scour and deposition to the changes in bed sediment gradation. We predict that when the median diameter (d50) of bed sediment increases from 0.076 mm (Gradation 1) to 0.242 mm (Gradation 4), water level at the Jiahetan cross-section will rise by 0.89 m, and scour and deposition in the Huayuankou-Sunkou reach will change from a scour volume of 67.9 million m3 to a deposition volume of 5.9 million m3, indicating a reduction of 109% in the scour rate. The findings of this study help manage the lower Yellow River channel under new water-sediment conditions.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 14-23 [Abstract] ( 34 ) PDF (2563 KB) ( 68 )

	24	Study on simulations of rainfall-flood processes and runoff allocation characteristics on community scale
		GUAN Baojun, HOU Jingming, LI Donglai, WANG Tian, LYU Jiahao, FAN Chenchen, GAO Xujun, SHEN Ruozhu, HUANG Miansong
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240303
		In this work, we study the proportions of different components of surface runoff on a community scale and their variations with different return periods of rainfall, using the GAST-SWMM coupled model and a case study of the Tianfu Heyuan community in Xixian New Area, and focusing on different simulation durations and different terrain boundary conditions. We find that this model, after validated against two measured rainfall events, gives the coefficient of determination of 0.83 and 0.82, indicating a high accuracy of the 1D-2D coupled model. Under the two scenarios of the community considered in this study, its surface runoff discharge rate and network drainage rate increase asymptotically with the increase in the rainfall return period, while the proportion of soil infiltration and the surface depression filling rate decrease. The surface runoff discharge and network drainage mainly occur in the rainfall periods, accounting for 94.88% and 94.36% of their respective annual totals. The impact of terrain boundary conditions in the community on its runoff process simulations is not negligible. The average rate of surface runoff discharge varies from 9.42% of the fence wall case to 22.55% of the no wall case. This study is useful for drainage and flood control in the areas relatively lower than the surrounding terrains.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 24-34 [Abstract] ( 38 ) PDF (1928 KB) ( 54 )

	35	Experimental study on water intake and sand control at Karot hydropower station in Pakistan
		LIU Yujiao, JIN Zhongwu, ZHOU Yinjun, LIU Xiaobin, LI Zhijing
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240304
		Sediment control is a key issue that needs to be addressed when a hydropower station takes water from a sandy river and generates electricity. This article presents an experimental study on sediment deposition, its developing trend, and sediment control for operating the Karot hydropower station in Pakistan through physical model tests. The results show that for this station, its sedimentation balance period will be extended up to 20 years if it adopts an optimized operation mode of grading selection timing for sand removal and a layout of dual bend sand diversion and water taking. Sediment accumulation in the river section 8.15 km upstream of the dam is 47.8 million m3, with an average deposit layer of 27.4 m thick and a maximum thickness of 51.7 m; The retention rate of the utilizable capacity is 78.6%. During water storage, sediment concentration in the flow through the turbines is decreased by 92.1%, while it is decreased by 33.7% before and after the flood season. Throughout a year, sediment concentration in the flow through the power plant unit will not exceed 1.2 kg/m3, and the largest prototype particle size passing through the turbine is 0.02 mm. Therefore, this station will not encounter the problem of coarse sediment passing through the turbine. The sediment discharge scheduling method and hub layout of the Karot hydropower station provide a solution to the sediment control of the sediment-rich river hydropower stations in plateau regions.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 35-42 [Abstract] ( 26 ) PDF (1147 KB) ( 69 )

	43	Capacity optimization of wind-solar pumped storage power generation system considering uncertainties
		LIU Shuai, WU Shengyang, LIU Weiliang, LIU Changliang, WANG Xin, KANG Jiayao
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240305
		Large-scale utilization of new energy such as wind and solar is an important way to achieve the goal of dual carbon, but its uncertainties affect the operation stability of power systems and the capability of absorbing new energy. This paper develops a capacity optimization allocation method considering uncertainties for wind-solar pumped storage power generation systems. First, a random distribution function is used to describe the output characteristics and load distributions of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and a mathematical model of complementary power generation system is developed. Then, we construct a two-layer capacity optimization configuration model based on the information gap decision theory and the entropy weight method. Finally, we use a multiverse optimization algorithm to solve for capacity optimization configuration schemes. Calculations show that investors can adopt different allocation strategies for source-load uncertainty according to their investment intentions, and the operating results obtained can well meet the requirements in different operation modes and multiple operation scenarios. Our method can help reduce the comprehensive cost significantly, improve the capacity of new energy consumption, and maintain the long-term operation of pumped storage power stations.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 43-56 [Abstract] ( 48 ) PDF (754 KB) ( 126 )

	57	Assessment model of life loss due to asphalt core wall dam breach considering effect of super-standard flood
		WANG Lin, WANG Sangpeng, LIU Yunhe, DONG Jing
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240306
		Once an asphalt core wall dam with strong anti-scour capability encounters a super-standard flood, it will be faced with the risk of collapse and pose a grave threat to downstream people. Previous studies on life loss caused by asphalt core wall dam breach are still lacking, and its assessment is an urgent issue. This paper presents an analysis of the characteristics of the breach flood under the action of a super-standard flood. Considering the interaction between the influencing factors of life loss, we construct a physical model for a quantitative assessment, based on the disaster-causing mechanism of breach flood, so as to realize a rapid quantitative analysis of life loss. Through method comparison and sensitivity analysis, the roles of different life loss factors are determined. This model is applied in a case study of the Sheyuegou breach in Xinjiang. We find the breach flood features a peak flow of 3320 m3/s and a duration of 3.35 h, which agrees with the real conditions. The quantitative life loss model predicts 31 casualties and its error is within 11%, better than previous life loss models. The sensitivity indexes Imax and Imin of the at-risk population are the largest, 1.44 and 0.19, respectively. They are the two most important factors of life loss caused by the Sheyuegou dam breach. Other factors are the severity of flood, whether to evacuate, alarm timing, and inundation extent.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 57-70 [Abstract] ( 25 ) PDF (5677 KB) ( 49 )

	71	Optimal capacity configuration for hydroelectric-thermal-wind-photovoltaic-storage multi-energy complementary system based on sequential power generation simulations
		JIANG Mengyan, WANG Xiao, DONG Chuang, WANG Sheliang, ZHOU Heng, GAO Jie
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240307
		Sequential power generation simulations play a critical role in the capacity configuration of hydroelectric-thermal-wind-photovoltaic-storage multi-energy complementary systems. In practice, 8760-hour system operation are hard to simulate directly using an optimization model because of its large scale. In this paper, a new time-scale decomposing technique is developed to solve this problem and realize the accurate simulations of 8760-hour system operation. Based on this, a two-stage optimization model is constructed for capacity configuration of a grid-connected multi-energy complementary system that comprises thermal power, hydropower, wind, photovoltaic, pumped-storage, and electrochemical energy storage. This new model was applied to the Qinghai power grid and achieved an optimized configuration of the system’s capacity of wind, photovoltaic, and pumped-storage.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 71-83 [Abstract] ( 23 ) PDF (1804 KB) ( 50 )

	84	Study on dynamic compressive properties of recycled aggregate asphalt concrete with different temperatures
		DONG Jing, WANG Ying, YU Chengyang, LIU Yunhe, NING Zhiyuan, CHEN Liangliang
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240308
		To further study the applicability of recycled aggregate asphalt concrete to hydraulic structures, this paper studies the dynamic mechanical properties of this concrete in different temperature environments. Its dynamic compressive performance is examined for the temperature range of -10 ℃ to 10 ℃ and the strain rate range of 10-5 to 10-2 s-1. The test results show that the compressive strength and elastic modulus are inversely proportional to temperature and proportional to loading rate; the peak strain is proportional to temperature and inversely proportional to loading rate. An analysis of temperature influence factors and correlation coefficients reveals that both compressive strength and elastic modulus gradually decrease with the rising temperature and tend to certain constant values.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 84-93 [Abstract] ( 30 ) PDF (991 KB) ( 63 )

	94	Panel data model-based method to fill in missing data for arch dams
		CUI Xinran, SHI Li, LU Xi, GU Hao, WU Yan, ZHU Mingyuan
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240309
		Concrete arch dams, as important hydraulic structures, frequently have missing measurement data due to monitoring equipment failures, human factors and other influences, which may reduce the effectiveness and accuracy of dam safety assessment and prediction. Previous methods mostly rely on single-point interpolation, neglecting the correlation and heterogeneity between measurement points. This paper develops a new method for interpolating the missing deformation data based on a panel data model. First, the incremental speed index of traditional deformation similarity is improved to solve the problem that its denominator may be equal to zero. Then, a combined weighting method is formulated to calculate a composite deformation similarity indicator, and an improved density-based clustering method is used to categorize the deformation monitoring points. Next, a panel model is developed to fill in the missing data in different intervals of the data sequence. This new method fills in the missing monitored deformation data of concrete arch dams more accurately, and thus can effectively solve the missing data problem.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 94-107 [Abstract] ( 30 ) PDF (837 KB) ( 78 )

	108	Seismic fragility analysis of high arch dams based on endurance time analysis method
		CHEN Denghong, WANG Ruinan, LIN Tiancheng, PAN Ziyue, ZHANG Xinhan
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240310
		A three-dimensional dam-reservoir-foundation dynamic interaction model is developed to evaluate the seismic performance of high arch dams, based on the endurance time analysis method (ETA). It takes inputs of 10 seismic acceleration time history curves synthesized using the target response spectra, and adopts structural performance indexes: the damage volume ratio of dam body, the relative streamwise displacements at the dam crest and heel, and the joint opening of crown cantilever. We formulate a relationship between the limit state and structural performance index by defining different performance levels of the dam-foundation system, so that we can draw its vulnerability curves. The results show that with an increasing input time of the seismic time history, the dam responses intensify, and the sensitivity of different response indexes to seismic intensity is different. And the responses calculated using the ETA method and the incremental dynamic analysis method (IDA) are nearly the same. When different evaluation indexes are used at the same performance level, the corresponding probabilities of exceedance will be different. Therefore, different structural response indexes should be considered comprehensively in evaluation of the seismic structure performance, and the index with the largest probability of exceedance at different performance levels should be selected for analysis.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 108-119 [Abstract] ( 24 ) PDF (4640 KB) ( 61 )

	120	Concrete placement sequencing for arch dams based on deep Monte Carlo tree search
		SONG Wenshuai, REN Bingyu, GUAN Tao
		DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240311
		Reasonable schemes of concrete placement sequencing have an important impact on accelerating construction progress and optimizing resource allocation. However, previous sequencing methods have simplified this sequential decision-making issue. Most of them adopt multi-attribute decision-making methods, which have the problem of analyzing only the real-time construction state of a dam and neglecting the influence of future concrete placing schemes on the current sequencing strategy; some adopt multi-objective optimization methods for analysis of the multi-objective optimization of the sequencing, but mainly using static weights and neglecting the dynamic changes in the sequencing strategy with the environment. To address these issues, a new concrete placement sequencing method for arch dams based on deep Monte Carlo tree search is presented. First, the constraints and objective function are examined, and a reinforcement learning model of the concrete placement sequencing for arch dams is developed. Then, for this learning model that demands a complex and large discrete state space, to optimize the sequencing strategy with better efficiency, we develop a new Monte Carlo tree search method combined with a deep neural network that is used for the priori action probability distribution prediction and strategy function evaluation. The case study of the Wudongde arch dam in China shows our method is effective in analysis of the sequencing. And compared with the particle swarm method and the evidence theory method, it shortens the construction period by 6 days and 14 days respectively, and raises the average mechanical utilization rate by 1.19% and 1.35% respectively.
		2024 Vol. 43 (3): 120-130 [Abstract] ( 25 ) PDF (2335 KB) ( 62 )