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水力发电学报

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数字孪生水利监测感知网多参数时序预测模型

  

  • 出版日期:2025-04-30 发布日期:2025-04-30

A multi-parameter time series prediction model for digital twin water conservancy monitoring sensor networks

  • Online:2025-04-30 Published:2025-04-30

摘要: 针对传统单点时序预测模型难以捕捉数字孪生水利监测感知网中设备的空间关系导致的关联特征缺失问题,以及模型结构与参数设计主观性强带来的不确定性问题,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯优化与Hyperband、自学习图结构和双向长短期记忆网络的监测感知网多参数时序预测模型。首先,生成自学习图结构,通过图神经网络提取感知网空间特征;其次,利用双向长短期记忆网络提取时序特征;进一步,采用BOHB(Bayesian Optimization & Hyperband)方法优化超参数,提升模型预测精度;最后,对监测感知网的未来状态进行前瞻预测。经验证,与多种预测模型相比,所提模型在R2、RMSE、MAE、MAPE和RMSRE方面优化率达4.35%、33.14%、20.47%、9.09%和15.03%以上,精度更高且泛化能力更强,具有显著性能优势。

Abstract: To address the issue of missing correlation features caused by traditional single-point time series prediction models failing to capture spatial relationships among devices in digital twin hydraulic monitoring perception networks, as well as the uncertainty issues arising from the strong subjectivity in model structure and parameter design, this paper proposes a multi-parameter time series prediction model for monitoring perception networks based on Bayesian Optimization & Hyperband (BOHB), self-learning graph structures, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks. First, a self-learning graph structure is generated to extract spatial features of the perception network using graph neural networks. Second, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks are employed to extract temporal features. Further, the BOHB method is utilized to optimize hyperparameters and improve prediction accuracy. Finally, proactive predictions of future states of the monitoring perception network are conducted. It has been verified that compared with various prediction models, the proposed model has optimization rates of more than 4.35%, 33.14%, 20.47%, 9.09% and 15.03% in R2, RMSE, MAE, MAPE and RMSRE, with higher accuracy and stronger generalization ability, and has significant performance advantages.

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