水力发电学报
            首 页   |   期刊介绍   |   编委会   |   投稿须知   |   下载中心   |   联系我们   |   学术规范   |   编辑部公告   |   English

水力发电学报

• •    

考虑源荷不确定性的日前市场出清价格区间预测模型

  

  • 出版日期:2025-04-21 发布日期:2025-04-21

Price range prediction model considering physical clearing mechanism in electricity market

  • Online:2025-04-21 Published:2025-04-21

摘要: 为了在考虑源荷不确定性的条件下更为精确地估计水火风光等多电源参与电力市场的出清电价,从而达到在降低风险成本的同时提高发电主体参与现货市场效益和优化电力资源配置的目的。本文在日前市场出清价格预测过程中,以源荷不确定性作为主要变量要素,对发电端机组出力预测的多维参数随机分布特征和负荷端的需求响应作用进行不确定性量化,结合电力市场物理出清机制和IEEE30节点电力系统,以多电源参与日前市场发电总成本最小为目标,建立了考虑源荷不确定性的日前市场出清价格区间预测模型,可求解得到兼顾源荷不确定性的机组LMP出清价格和中标出力区间预测结果。应用于IEEE30节点电力系统的算例分析结果表明,本文模型预测的出清电价和出力范围能够有效提升发电主体申报效率和中标效益,较传统单点出清预测方法整体效益提高了4.09%,发电期望效益增加0.47%,验证了模型的可行性和优越性,为发电主体参与日前现货市场的阶梯报价和机组出力申报提供了更为丰富的参考依据。

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of clearing price estimation in electricity markets with multiple power sources under source-load uncertainty, this paper proposes a day-ahead market clearing price interval prediction model. The model considers the uncertainty of generation-side output characterized by multidimensional stochastic distributions and the impact of load-side demand response. Based on the physical clearing mechanism of electricity markets and the IEEE 30-bus power system, the model aims to minimize the total generation cost with the participation of hydropower, thermal, wind, and solar power. By solving the proposed model, the interval results of LMP and generation commitments can be obtained, taking into account source-load uncertainty. Case studies show that the proposed method improves bidding efficiency and generation revenue. Compared with traditional point forecasting methods, it achieves a 4.09% increase in overall economic efficiency and a 0.47% improvement in expected revenue. The results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model, providing reliable decision-making support for generators in formulating stepwise bidding and output strategies in the day-ahead market.

京ICP备13015787号-3
版权所有 © 2013《水力发电学报》编辑部
编辑部地址:中国北京清华大学水电工程系 邮政编码:100084 电话:010-62783813
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发  技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn