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水力发电学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 29-39.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20180904

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黄河唐乃亥以上流域降雨偏差纠正方法研究

  

  • 出版日期:2018-09-25 发布日期:2018-09-25

Precipitation bias-correction methods for Yellow River basin upstream of Tangnaihai

  • Online:2018-09-25 Published:2018-09-25

摘要: 为了提高气候模式模拟降雨的精度,采用单伽玛分布法、分段双伽玛分布法和分段三伽玛分布法对18 GCMs在黄河唐乃亥以上流域12个气象站的模拟降雨进行偏差纠正,并根据偏差纠正有效指标C、效率系数NS和相对偏差PBIAS对三种方法的偏差纠正效果进行评估和对比分析。研究结果表明:三种偏差纠正方法可以有效地消除模拟降雨与实测降雨间的偏差。经单伽玛分布法、分段双伽玛分布法和分段三伽玛分布法偏差纠正后,指标C值达0.85以上的,三种方法分别占69.4%、82%和88.4%;指标NS达0.4以上的,分别占69%、70.8%和71.3%;指标PBIAS在-1.3% ~ 2.3%的,分别占65.7%、67.6%和69.9%。综合来看,分段三伽玛分布法的偏差纠正效果最好,分段双伽玛分布法次之,单伽玛分布法最差。

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of climate models in precipitation simulation, we collect the monthly precipitation at 12 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin upstream of Tangnaihai, and correct the deviation in precipitation simulated by 18 global climate models (GCMs) using three methods, i.e., single gamma (SG), separated double gamma (SDG), and separated triple gamma (STG) distributions. The effects of these bias-correction methods are evaluated and compared in terms of three indexes: bias-correction effective index C, Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient, and relative bias index (PBIAS). The results indicate that all the three methods are able to effectively remove the deviation in simulated precipitations from the observed ones. After correction, 69.4%, 82% and 88.4% of index C values exceed 0.85 for SG, SDG and STG, respectively; 69%, 70.8% and 71.3% of NS values exceed 0.4; 65.7%, 67.6% and 69.9% of index PBIAS values are -1.3% to 2.3%, a range close to zero. In summary, STG is the best in precipitation bias correction and SG is the worst.

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