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水力发电学报

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多主体梯级水电站联合调度的利益分配策略研究

  

  • 出版日期:2026-09-03 发布日期:2026-09-03

Joint Operation Benefit Allocation Strategy for Multi-Stakeholder Cascade Hydropower Stations

  • Online:2026-09-03 Published:2026-09-03

摘要: 梯级水电站联合调度可提升系统整体发电效益,科学分配合作增益是联盟稳定运行的关键。本文结合隐随机优化和长短期记忆网络模型优选调度规则,用以模拟长系列调度过程从而构建收益函数;在此基础上,采用比例、核仁和Shapley值多种分配模型分配合作增益;最后,通过多维评价优选分配策略。玛尔挡-班多-羊曲梯级研究实例表明:梯级联合调度多年平均发电效益达37.28亿元,较独立运行增加1.73亿元,增幅为4.87%;经Shapley值分配模型,三站分别获得48.55%、11.56%和39.88%的合作增益,此时联盟运行最稳定。研究成果可为多主体梯级电站联合调度机制设计提供理论依据。

Abstract: Joint operation of cascade hydropower stations improves system-wide power-generation benefits, while scientifically allocating cooperative gains is essential to alliance stability. In this study, we combine implicit stochastic optimization with a long short-term memory model to select operating rules, which are used to simulate long-term operation and to construct payoff functions. Cooperative gains are allocated using proportional, nucleolus, and Shapley-value methods, and the preferred strategy is identified through multidimensional evaluation. A case study of the Mardang–Banduo–Yangqu cascade hydropower system shows that joint operation yields an average annual benefit of CNY 3.728 billion, an increase of CNY 173 million, or 4.87%, over independent operation. Under the Shapley-value allocation, Mardang, Banduo, and Yangqu receive 48.55%, 11.56%, and 39.88% of the cooperative gain, respectively, resulting in the most stable alliance. These findings provide a theoretical basis for designing joint-operation mechanisms for multi-operator cascaded hydropower systems.

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