水力发电学报
            首 页   |   期刊介绍   |   编委会   |   投稿须知   |   下载中心   |   联系我们   |   学术规范   |   编辑部公告   |   English

水力发电学报

• •    

物理增强注意力机制洪水预报模型的KNN实时校正研究

  

  • 出版日期:2026-09-03 发布日期:2026-09-03

KNN-Based Real-Time Correction for Flood Forecasting Model Coupled with Physics Enhancement and Attention Mechanism

  • Online:2026-09-03 Published:2026-09-03

摘要: 精准的洪水预报与实时过程校正是现代防洪减灾体系中的关键环节。本研究以滦河三道河子水文站控制流域为例,在长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)基础模型上,构建了融合注意力与物理约束双重机制的洪水预报模型。在此基础上,进一步采用K最近邻(KNN)算法对预报序列进行实时动态校正,并比较分析了不同模型在KNN校正下的性能差异。结果表明:KNN校正方法能有效提升模型精度,显著降低洪峰流量预报误差与峰现时间误差,同时抑制洪水过程模拟中的异常波动。该方法在提升洪水预报能力、增强预警时效性、支持防灾决策等方面具有实际应用价值,并为认识研究区洪水过程特征提供了参考依据。

Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting and real-time correction are essential for modern flood prevention and mitigation. Taking the Sandaohezi hydrological station in the Luan River Basin as an example, this study develops a hybrid PHY-FTMA-LSTM flood forecasting model by incorporating attention mechanisms and physical constraints into a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm is then applied for real-time dynamic correction of forecast sequences, and the performance changes of different models after KNN correction are evaluated. The results show that KNN correction effectively improves model accuracy, reduces errors in peak flow and peak timing, and suppresses anomalous oscillations during flood process simulation. This method provides a reference for understanding flood process characteristics in the study area and has practical value for improving flood forecasting in small and medium-sized rivers, enhancing warning timeliness, and supporting disaster prevention decisions.

京ICP备13015787号-3
版权所有 © 2013《水力发电学报》编辑部
编辑部地址:中国北京清华大学水电工程系 邮政编码:100084 电话:010-62783813
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发  技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn