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水力发电学报

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考虑净雨序列影响的神经网络时变单位线

  

  • 出版日期:2026-07-13 发布日期:2026-07-13

Net-Rainfall-Sequence-Informed Neural Network-Based Time-Varying Unit Hydrograph

  • Online:2026-07-13 Published:2026-07-13

摘要: 针对现有单位线对汇流过程刻画能力不足的问题,本文采用长短期记忆网络捕捉前期与当前净雨对汇流过程的影响,结合Softmax函数生成不受经验公式约束的时变单位线(LSTM-TSUH)。以福建省7个中小流域为对象开展小时尺度洪水模拟实验,并从单位线特征及模型预报精度等方面进行评估。结果表明,考虑净雨序列影响的模型LSTM-TSUH在Kling-Gupta效率系数和洪峰流量误差两项指标上均居最优、纳什效率系数仅次于LSTM-Q,且基于Softmax的单位线在整体水文过程和峰值拟合方面均优于经验单位线。此外LSTM-TSUH模型成功捕捉到前期净雨与当前净雨对汇流过程的协同驱动机制,进一步证实数据驱动模型可以探索获得未知的水文规律。

Abstract: To address the insufficient capability of existing unit hydrographs in representing the runoff routing process, this paper adopts a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture the influence of antecedent and current net rainfall on the runoff routing process, and incorporates a Softmax function to generate a time-varying unit hydrograph that is free from the constraints of empirical formulas, termed LSTM-TSUH. Taking seven small and medium-sized catchments in Fujian Province as study areas, hourly flood simulation experiments were conducted, and the evaluation was carried out from the perspectives of unit hydrograph characteristics and model forecast accuracy. The results show that the LSTM-TSUH model, which considers the influence of net rainfall sequences, ranks best in both Kling-Gupta efficiency and Top Peak Error, second only to LSTM-Q in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and the Softmax-based unit hydrograph outperforms the empirical unit hydrograph in both the overall hydrological process and peak fitting. Moreover, the LSTM-TSUH model successfully captures the synergistic driving mechanism of antecedent and current net rainfall on the runoff routing process, further verifying that data-driven models can explore and reveal unknown hydrological laws. Keywords: time-varying unit hydrograph; net rainfall sequence influence; long short-term memory network; Softmax function; flood simulation

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