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水力发电学报

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乌鲁木齐河流域汛期分期研究

  

  • 出版日期:2026-06-16 发布日期:2026-06-16

Study of the flood season subdivision in the Urumqi River Basin

  • Online:2026-06-16 Published:2026-06-16

摘要: 科学精准地划分汛期是实现流域内水库汛期分期控制运用和汛限水位动态控制的关键。以乌鲁木齐河流域作为研究对象开展汛期分期研究,基于代表性水文站(英雄桥(二)水文站)1958—2023年的逐日流量、洪峰流量及发生时间序列,采用数理统计法、模糊分析法和分形分析法研究洪水汛期分期规律,并通过综合比较确定分期方案。结果表明各方法分期结果基本一致,乌鲁木齐河流域汛期为6月21日—8月15日,其中7月11日—7月31日为主汛期,6月21日—7月10日为前汛期,8月1日—8月15日为后汛期,并采用Mann-Kendall检验法验证了该分期结果的合理性。研究成果可为乌鲁木齐河流域各水库分期控制运用和洪水资源化利用提供基础。

Abstract: The precise division of the flood season is essential for the staged operation of reservoirs and the dynamic management of flood-limited water levels. This study focuses on the Urumqi River Basin and investigates the flood season subdivision. Utilizing daily streamflow data, flood peak discharges, and corresponding timing records from the representative Hero Bridge Hydrological Station over the period from 1958 to 2023, three analytical approaches - mathematical statistics, fuzzy analysis and fractal analysis - are employed to identify robust patterns in flood season subdivision. A comparative evaluation of the results derived from these methods reveals that the subdivision results are generally similar.The results show that the flood season in the Urumqi River Basin extends from June 21 to August 15, with three distinct subperiods: (i) the pre-flood season (June 21—July 10), (ii) the main flood season (July 11—July 31), and (iii) the post-flood season (August 1—August 15). Finally, the derived results are verified to be reasonable through the Mann-Kendall test method. These findings offer a scientific basis for phased flood control operations and flood resource utilization in reservoirs within the Urumqi River Basin.

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