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水力发电学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (10): 35-44.doi: 10.11660/slfdxb.20171004

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洪水二维变量重现期的探讨

  

  • 出版日期:2017-10-25 发布日期:2017-10-25

Preliminary study on flood return periods based on bivariate variables

  • Online:2017-10-25 Published:2017-10-25

摘要: 洪水二维变量(洪峰x和洪量y)重现期涉及工程防洪计算和评价,历来受到高度重视。重现期的推求、洪水事件构成及匹配理念三者紧密相关。本文基于Copula函数论述并推求了四种洪水重现期(“一维变量”重现期N1、“和”事件重现期N2、“积”事件重现期N3、匹配重现期N4)的理念及其计算,重点阐明了N4。以岷江支流马边河马边水文站为例,对比分析各重现期之间关系,结果表明:对于二变量一组取值(x0, y0),当x0和y0均较大或较小时,大小顺序为N3> N4> N1> N2;当x0较大,y0较小或y0较大,x0较小时,会出现N3较N4明显大得多,且N4可能小于N1的情况。应用时需注意Copula函数一些特殊性质,应结合工程特性和要求等选定防洪计算所需的匹配值。

Abstract: Bivariate return periods of floods, with peak flood discharge x and flood volume y as variables, are important to calculation and evaluation of flood control in hydraulic engineering. For a flood event, calculation of its return periods much depends on its components and how to match the demands. This paper discusses and calculates four types of return periods using the Copula function theories ? univariate return period N1, OR-event return period N2, AND-event return period N3, and matching return period N4 ? focusing on the demonstration of N4. And the four return periods are compared in a case study of the Mabian hydrological station of the Mabian River, a branch of the Minjiang River. The results show that for a given set (x0, y0) of the bivariate variables, the values of these periods are quite different. When both x0 and y0 are large or small, they follow a decreasing order of N3> N4> N1> N2; when x0 is large and y0 is small or y0 large and x0 small, N4 could become possibly much larger than N3 or even smaller than N1. Thus, attention should be paid to the special properties of the Copula functions and we recommend the use of bivariate matching values N4 in flood control calculations.

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